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Canadian Real Estate Prices Hit An All-Time High, But Gains Are Rapidly Decelerating

MAY 1, 2018   *Source: Statistics Canada. Better Dwelling.*
Canadian real estate prices have spiked to a new high. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show prices across the country ripped higher in March. Despite the good news for sellers, gains are tapering at an alarming rate. The Price Of A Typical Home In Canada Has Never Been Higher
The price of an aggregate benchmark (a.k.a. typical) home, made a huge single month leap in March. The benchmark reached $652,400 across Canada, a 1.14% increase from the month before. That represents a 4.6% increase compared to the same month last year. The benchmark is now printing an all-time high, beating the previous record set last July. Remember, this is an aggregate benchmark, which includes condos as well. Not just detached homes.
Canadian Real Estate Price Gains Are Rapidly Decelerating
The increase has a few caveats worth noting, one of the most interesting being price deceleration. The annual increase of 4.6% is a huge gain, but it’s the lowest increase since December 2013. People should also note how quickly this trend is tapering. The rate of growth has declined 74.78% over the past 11 months. The gain is very large, but the pace at which they’re declining should be read as a sign of caution.
But… Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Falling
We know, Toronto’s composite prices are falling, how can the rest of the country be increasing? The aggregate benchmark price is a weighted index of cities by regions, and Toronto sales are declining very quickly. Toronto sales represented 21.3% of sales in the country last year, and only 16.5% of sales this year. Smaller regions are seeing sales rise, and prices with them. This brings up the floor of prices across the country, as lower priced homes in far off regions disappear. Too wordy? Lower priced markets (like Edmonton) climbed last month, meaning the cheapest homes in the average are rising.

RegionMarch 2018 Toronto 7,228 Montreal 5,656 Vancouver 2,551 Calgary 1,733 Ottawa 1,674 Fraser Valley 1,576 Edmonton 1,535 Hamilton-Burlington 1,009 Winnipeg 923 Quebec City 871 London and St Thomas 823 Victoria 656 Niagara Region 541 Kitchener-Waterloo 528 Other 16,635 RegionMarch 2017 Toronto 12,077 Montreal 5,318 Vancouver 3,632 Calgary 2,384 Ottawa 1,519 Fraser Valley 2,113 Edmonton 1,796 Hamilton-Burlington 1,660 Winnipeg 1,068 Quebec City 888 London and St Thomas 1,238 Victoria 873 Niagara Region 822 Kitchener-Waterloo 790 Other 20,447

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